Good morning, it's a quarterpast in Copenhagen, and we are ready here at the webinar, and we are ready here at the webinar to share a bit on our take on Trumps return. and we are so happy that you are here and look forward to taking you through the agenda today. So, before we get started on the agenda, actually, if we just take a step back, and we are a deliberately unpredictable, we also know from the art of the deal that his style is quite straightforward, as he also says himself. He aims high, he aims high, and he has big thinking, he has big thinking, then he pushes through, and then he pushes through, and then he creates a bit of controversy, because that will get him on the front page, and maybe it will also get him the deal when he wants to make it. So if you just take that step back, actually the surprise was not that big. However, obviously a lot of things are on the table now, and stakes are high, uncertainty is on the rise, and we are now welcoming ourselves into this world of meganomics or maybe trombonomics, as Martin will call it in a few seconds. And it will be super interesting to follow, and for us as business leaders, it's super important that we figure out how to enact and act in this world. So, we are, as I said, super delighted to have you here, and today you'll meet Martin and myself. I'm a strategist. I've been with Implement Consulting Group for 14 years. I do strategy with big global companies like Novo and Maersk, and also smaller startups and scale-ups. I do strategy and also a bit of sustainability. Martin, who are you? I'm the economist. Good morning, everybody. I have the pleasure of working with big global companies on economic questions. I work for companies like Google, and I work in the dairy sector. I work with transportation. So that's my background. And in case you don't know us, Implement Consulting Group is a primarily European consulting company working globally. We are 1,800 consultants ready to help organizations get fit for the future and also fit on this topic. So, delighted to have you here. If we take a brief look at the agenda, we have two main sections. Firstly, Martin will unfold what is going to be happening and what has happened yesterday. Maybe we will come and talk a bit about that. And then I will be talking a bit about how to act on this as a company. What is it that we need to think about, maybe starting right now, if you haven't already started thinking about it. So, that's the agenda. At the end, we will have time for questions and answers and hopefully a good discussion with you guys. So, welcome again, and let's get going. So, welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And this will boost growth and consumption in the U.S. It can be debated exactly how much, and we're yet to learn. But this will drive growth, and markets are already picking up on the expectations of that. And that would sort of accelerate towards the end of his four-year period with a magnitude to be uncovered as we learn more about his plans. So this will boost growth, but more demand in an economy that is already driving at a fairly high rate with relatively low employment, that will drive more pressure on prices and potentially more inflation. Secondly, he has been quite vocal about immigration, and this is a big topic. Economically, the expectation is that the impact will be relatively limited, and for two reasons. One is that this is a very difficult task to conduct what he calls mass deportations. There are around 11 million immigrants in the U.S., of which 8 million of these actually do have a job in the U.S. economy. So it would be devastating for the U.S. economy if those were taken out of the U.S. economy within a year, and nobody believes that is possible. However, I think it is very obvious that he'll be very firm on this, and it took a big role in his speech last night. And it is expected to reduce the inflow, and most economists expect that immigration would take a slowdown, but we are not foreseeing massive numbers of people being deported. But this will be a long-term trend that will bear negatively on the U.S. economy, and it will also add to the inflationary pressures, because you are taking out inflow to the labor force. And then comes the big question, and this is where the uncertainties for European business are biggest, and that is on the tariff scene. He was quite modest yesterday and didn't devote much to this, and not many of his decrees of yesterday actually addressed this question. But we are very certain that he will act on the trade agenda. He will use tariffs as a key instrument. And what is new is linking the use of tariffs to other policy objectives. So that weaponizing of trade policy is likely to take another step up. Most people expect this to be a starting point for a negotiation, and that's also why we are not surprised that he didn't impose those very broad-based high-level tariffs on day one. Because he want to have negotiations on those topics first, and then have this as a potential threat in the backhand to sort of give him leverage in those negotiations. If he do indeed go ahead and impose tariffs to the tune of what he has said in his campaign, this will have very serious negative consequences that he has to be on the trade-based policies on the US economy. And that will, again, fuel more inflation as import prices are pushed up. We believe as economists that Trump is likely to be sadly disappointed about the possibilities of tariffs in terms of reducing the trade deficit, the overall trade deficit of the US economy. That, from any economic standpoint, is a standpoint, is virtually impossible. You cannot reduce a trade deficit by the use of broad-based tariffs. It will pop up, the currency will adjust, interest rates will go up, and you will be back to the same trade deficit, only with less imports and less exports. So on that account, I'm afraid that Mr. Trump will be hugely disappointed. So when we put it all together and comparing sort of a light with a full-blown scenario, we lean more towards the limited scenario simply for the reason that that would actually boost the US economy over the reign of his four-year period, whereas a very aggressive trade and tariff policy would actually create fairly fast negative impacts on the US economy and on the stock market. And I think he will face serious opposition from broad base of his voters and from businesses if he did indeed engage in a full-blown tariff scenario. So we believe that is less likely. Can we exclude it? Absolutely not. So we think businesses should keep both of those scenarios in top of their agenda. Also, when looking at the impacts this has had on the interest rate expectations, rates are expected to come down a bit slower in the US than expected pre-his election. And in Europe, rates are expected to come down a bit faster than expected pre-his election. That has adjusted a little bit over the recent weeks, but the direction is still the same. A global tariff war is still, in terms of the economic side of things, the big question mark. As you can see here, a widespread global trade war with retaliation from partners and broad base tariffs from Trump will have quite severe impacts on global growth and especially also in the US, of course, and in China. So this is definitely something that policymakers and businesses should be looking out for. It also, as said, it also opens up new opportunities. Now, yesterday he flagged in the interviews after the inauguration that he is considering 25% on Mexico and Canada. If that happens, this opens up new opportunities for European businesses. It creates a much better access situation to the Canadian market. It puts US domestic competitors using inputs from Canada at the back foot, whereas there will be no change immediately for European businesses. So while this is bad for economic growth, it's bad for overall global growth. For European companies, this opens up new opportunities and we definitely suggest to keep that up on your strategic radar as you follow this. And on the trade scene, this is one of the areas where he is deliberately unpredictable. And we believe that businesses are well advised to try to disentangle that unpredictability and that complexity and to use brain power to sort of distill that complexity into what does it mean in terms of clear business choices. And we can come back to the details of this. And we have a number of scenarios that we believe that you should assess as a business if you are having a global value chain. Because your pricing choices, your sourcing choices and your strategic choices can grant you a competitive advantage in this fast changing and highly unpredictable world if you play your cards right. So bottom line is, I've spoken about the economic parts of it. But keep in mind also the geopolitical elements of the policy agenda. And then you should work with how to deal with a more uncertain, more unpredictable, more volatile, more ambiguous world where you also keep a keen eye on new opportunities. And how to do that, I couldn't think of anyone better than my good colleague Morten. So over to you. Yeah, thanks. So that's the outlook from an economic point of view. If we then turn more to ourselves and think about how should we act on this? What's on our agenda right now? So now we know the Trump agenda, or at least we've been exposed to a part of it. What should be on our agenda? And obviously we're looking into uncertainty. It seems as if Trump thinks that big and stronger will beat the world and make sure that politics gets in place. But we also know from evolutionary biology that actually it's not the biggest and the strongest that will survive. It's actually the one that's most adaptable to change. So in this nice quote from Charles Darwin, we actually see that the key to success, according to him, is being responsive to change. So adaptability and responsiveness is the name of the game, especially if you're in business and if you're facing these uncertainties. So moving from Darwin and to the present, we think the biggest question on the strategic agenda is how do we become even more agile? That's a theme that has been on the agenda for years. It's more important than ever. So how do we become more agile? How might we strategize in a more agile way to become fit for this more uncertain future? Obviously, there are many ways of doing this and we could sort of spend the entire day thinking through the different ways of getting more agile. However, in this short webinar, we would suggest three. We could call them signature best practices that we see in top performing companies that are working really well. They're quite straightforward. They're quite simple. And they are taking a look at the situation and making sure that you're actually able to act. So the first best practice is stress testing your current strategy by looking at assumptions. So it's taking a look at what is already in the light of Trump. Secondly, as Martin pointed to, we need to look into what's next. In other words, multiple futures, what could play out. And instead of reacting to what others are doing, for instance, Donald Trump, we should be able to have alternative plans in place. And then thirdly, and maybe the more tricky best practice, but a very important best practice is thinking about how should we act? How should our operating model be installed to be able to handle these kinds of twists and turns, uncertainties, unpredictabilities on an ongoing basis so we are not sort of just acting on a more event basis? So we'll open these up a bit. And then while we're opening these sort of more strategic questions up, of course, you're more than welcome to ask questions in the chat. And then Martin will get back at the end and we'll have a debate on the questions. So let's look into these three different practices and give a few examples also related to Trump. So the most important question and strategy is what needs to hold true for our current strategy to be successful? Because obviously you cannot change your strategy all the time. But nevertheless, the most important question becomes what are the most important factors or most important assumptions that need to hold true for your current strategy to be successful? In other words, do you need to change anything at all? Or should you just take note of what happened in the US and then act on other assumptions that might change? So here we see the picture. And of course, we have not covered all the assumptions. You have to have this 360 degree view on your assumption. It's both the geopolitical situation, it's your customers, it's your markets, it's your suppliers, it's everything, right? So there are literally thousands of assumptions underlying your strategy. This is all about boiling it down to the essence and figuring out which are the ones that are most important, where is the make or break points in your strategy, and which might change. And this is an important question right now. So which are the assumptions that have changed given what Trump did yesterday and is about to do the coming days? And here are two examples. So it might be that you have a strategy where you have on your radar that the green agenda is progressing according to the green agenda is progressing according to plan, according to the Paris Agreement, and your entire supply chain is internet. And it might also be on your radar that global trade should be relatively stable for you to succeed. Obviously, these assumptions are about to change. And if they are indeed changing, and if you foresee that they are changing, next up is of course, revisiting your strategy, because then you need to change your strategy. If these assumptions turn out to be really important and highly uncertain, then you need to gather your team, think about the strategic choices and act accordingly. Here, it's purely illustrative. And it's obviously always very contextual what's on this assumption radar, and it should be really, really tied closely to your current strategy. And now given all the executive orders and what have we from from some that are about to happen. So that is taking a look at what is, do we need to change at all? And if yes, how do we do it? The second best practice that we think is right now really important, given the rise of uncertainty, is figuring out what does your future look like? We painted a broad picture of the overall global outlook with some of the macroeconomic factors. Again, this needs to be taken into your context for your company, for your situation. What are the most uncertain factors that might impact your business? Consider both what is highly important. What is highly visible, but also what might be potential black swan's event, spot some disruptions on the horizon. So you paint that overall picture. On one hand, what you should do is paint a clear picture of what you believe is the base case, right? So when uncertainty is on the rise, there's some people that say, ah, everything is uncertain, and then we need to act accordingly, and everything is a bit blurry, and then we are becoming a bit reactive. Actually, the opposite is often the best advice. Paint a clear picture of your base case, but then be prepared. We need to figure out for alternative futures and explore those. And don't only paint the picture, also figure out how to enact in those futures. So again, a simplistic example, building on what we know. You could think about sort of the global trade situation. Is it going to be relatively unaffected by whatever is going to happen? Or are we going into scenarios where we look towards global trade wars and higher tariffs, and sort of the negative effects that Martin was talking about, spiraling through the world? On one hand, that could be one key uncertainty. On the other hand, another key uncertainty could be sort of the green transition. We already saw that happening yesterday, with the executive order that the US should withdraw from the Paris Agreement. How is that going to play out in real life? Will we still see the rest of the world pushing forward on the green agenda, continuing to regulate so we are imposing new regulations on companies? Or will we see a slowdown? I think in the news today, there's a story about the European Union taking a second look at the regulation. Maybe it's becoming over-regulated, some say, on the green agenda. In other words, that paints at least two clearly distinct scenarios that you might plan for. So you have in the lower left corner, maybe a united world with green progress. And in the upper right corner, you have trans warfare and global wildfires, which is actually literally literally the case at the moment. How would you play out your strategy in each of those corners? And by the way, what's the most important scenario for you to consider as a business? Because this is generic, you need it to make it context-specific and know exactly which triggers to act on when the world changes and be prepared for that. So that's the second best practice that we would any day recommend based on what is going to happen and unfold. Thirdly, and this is maybe a bigger question, but nevertheless, the way that you can sort of elevate your game from traditional practices where you do strategy as something that might be labeled as an event or on a three or five year basis, and then you tend to forget about it and focus on executing, to moving into a paradigm of what we call always on strategy because we just have to face it. We are facing all these uncertainties and today we only focus on Trump mainly, but just look around the world. There are so many factors that we also should factor into our thinking. In other words, we need to move from sort of strategy as event to strategy as something that's always on. So the classic way of doing strategy, do a strategy, set goals, and then go execute, go execute, go execute, and then in three or five years look back and conclude on that is a thing of the past in our mind. That doesn't mean that it doesn't make sense to do strategy in that way, but you also need to accompany those bigger pieces of strategy work with smaller bursts of strategy revisiting. In that way, you can sort of tie in what we could call an infinity loop between turning strategy into action and figuring out which actions to be done. So this balance is a strategy to prioritize right now given the right strategic initiatives or strategic actions or transformations. So this balance between what you on one hand could say strategic portfolio management, how do I allocate my resources, my capacities, my money, my talent, my people to the right changes and how do I then drive those changes right? Doing the strategic initiatives right? Of course, this is fairly simplified, but we believe that we need to move from this strategy as event mindset to strategy as something being always on, going on and on and on in sort of a structured way, of course. If we take this one step further, we also notice, given all the things that are happening and all the things that's going to unfold, that strategy cannot be something that's confined to a few people sitting at the top of the organization. Of course, these people still have to be involved. But maybe in the future, it's more about distributing that capability of making those choices, making sure that you've installed that as a fundamental capability across the organization, across business units, across functions, in order to drive strategy forward, because otherwise, there's a big risk that you get stuck. There's so many things to consider all the time. I think it was a list of 100 executive orders yesterday. Just consider that. Nobody can sort of meaningfully digest all of that at one time. So instead of centralizing, maybe it's about distributing strategy capabilities to everyone and then, of course, being really clear on the operating model for that. Just to give you an example before we open up for discussions on the different Trump scenarios. Here's a Danish company that is succeeding tremendously. It's an undisputed market leader in the space for electric vehicle charging and services in Denmark. And they are growing exponentially. It's a company called Clever. Maybe you know it. For those of you joining from Denmark, their CEO is currently featured on Danish TV in this show about leadership. And actually, it is all about leadership. How do I lead into the future thinking strategically? And how do you navigate in these uncertainties? As you can imagine, a company like Clever has been navigating in the space of electric vehicles. If you think 10 years back, there were literally no electric vehicles in the streets. Maybe they will not be in the future because yesterday, Trump actually sort of took some steps to sort of slow down the progress of EVs. I don't know how that will play out with Musk. But let's see how that plays out. Anyways, and then moving forward to the present where you have exponential growth in the Danish market and multiple European markets despite some turmoil. So the way that Clever as a company has managed to grow from being a small startup, actually, to becoming one of the fastest growing companies in Denmark has, among other things, been their ability to think about strategy. How do we deal with uncertainties like the ones that Trump right now are imposing? So they are having a, you could call it a both-and mindset. Because what I said was not that we need to discard the long-term strategic thinking. That still holds true, right? That's still meaningful. But we just need to integrate it with some newer elements. So four elements that you see sort of in Clever's operating model for strategy. Firstly, they hold onto and cling onto the idea about long-term strategic clarity. So they have a long-term vision. However, it's also based on multiple scenarios and experimental strategic options that they can play out. So they have something in the back pocket in case this or that assumption will change. One aspect is for sure that long-term strategic vision. Secondly, they've also said we need to accompany this with something that's much more agile and faster. That is why they have installed this Clever strategy lab, which basically is a strategic control tower looking into the external environment, the internal environment, having continuous cross-organizational discussions, monitoring, and updates on the strategy. And a very, very clear governance structure where all the different business units meet and escalates issues to sort of the central control tower and have a very clear operating model for how to navigate these different assumptions. It's basically a visual war room they have that they can have this 360-degree view of the situation. Thirdly, when they then see issues on the horizon or if an assumption changes like the one that we just spoke about, the Green Deal or Global Trade Wars, then they have a fixed operating model for launching agile strategy sprints, small bursts of cross-functional teams that work on specific issues, adapt the strategy, and then put that into execution and figure out what kind of execution model that actually could work for this, ranging from simple stuff that just do it to something that's a bit more high risk where it requires core functional coordination so they have different execution models where they can follow up. And lastly, the point about distributing leadership is a core element, a core value in Clever. They have a sociocracy operating model and organizational design that is intentionally non-hierarchical and post-bureaucratic. There are no bosses in Clever despite the CEO. And leadership is a core element, a core element, a core element, a core element, and a core element. And leadership is seen as a task that is distributed. That means that the net effect of this is a very decentralized organization where teams are empowered to act all the time, not to wait for the next top-down command. An example from a Danish company, and we also see these practices in bigger companies. So, on one hand, we have all the likely events that are going to happen. to unfold on the horizon and in the coming days, given Trump, and of course, we should look broader. And then, on the other hand, here are sort of our top three, if you will, on things that you should consider to act on the agenda. Firstly, stress test your assumptions. Stress test your current strategy. Secondly, think about what's next. Explore multiple futures. Think about how you play both to the maybe challenges and the opportunities that Martin alluded to. And thirdly, think about how you enable this always on strategy mindset and capability across the organization. So, that's our advice on how to get more agile on strategy. And I think right now, it's time to put together the different pieces, sort of what are the inputs for that agile strategy machine and how could that play out. So, just to summarize, and then we have a bit of time to think about questions and answers. I think if Martin and I were to sort of put this in a bit more sort of fancy lingo, we think, firstly, you need to have that geopolitical vision, sharpen your forward-looking abilities. First of all, take that driver's seat, because right now, a certain gentleman in the US is taking it. So, now it's your time, because it's too late to act when it has happened, and competitors are most likely moving. So, I think, I think, to your point, Martin, don't go too late on this. It might be easy to lean back and say, ah, let's wait and see. But, you know, do the deep analysis. You saw the modeling that Martin's team had been doing. I think that's actually needed, because it makes the world of a difference how the GDP is going to develop and the different scenarios. Get an expert view on the situation. And then, lastly, speaking to some of the points that I mentioned, you know, figure out how to switch those gears. So, when being in that driver's seat, switch gears, ensure your strategy operating model is fit for a deliberately unpredictable precedent on one hand, and then that will sort of, you know, evaporate into a more uncertain future. So, those were sort of our takeaways. And then, we have a bit of time to answer some of the questions here. And I think, Martin, maybe you've been looking into some of the questions. Yes, there were a couple. I can maybe start with those. So, I think the first question was around European business competitiveness and how that would be affected under the second term of Mr. Trump. I think Trump cares about US competitiveness and US businesses only, and meaning only. That is his singular focus. So, if European businesses or business interests stands in the way of his objectives, he has no veneration, so to speak, for that. So, I think European competitiveness will overall see difficulties. However, if you judge by the remarks of yesterday, it actually, I would draw the opposite conclusion. If he solely goes with tariffs against Mexico and Canada, his closest trading partners, and does nothing on the rest of the world, that would be, from a competitiveness point of view, from Europe, that would be a wonderful gift. However, I don't think that is how this will play out in the end. So, overall, our long-term view on this is that competitiveness for European businesses will be a casualty in his presidency. And there was a bit of questions around bitcoins. I'm not an expert in the topic. I would say macroeconomics. So, I think, frankly, while it's a big and growing market, it's still too small to make sort of matter on a macro scale. You could be concerned about the need for regulating that market more. I think it's highly unlikely that he'll do that, given the backing that he's gotten from that camp in his campaign and his positive attitude towards bitcoins. So, I think, I think, I think a democratic president would probably have attended to that from the regulatory side. But it's very unlikely that Trump will try to interfere with that market. And please let the questions flow. A couple of questions on sort of the strategic agility point. Jacob mentioned said that maybe strategies becoming more integrated with sort of tactical business planning. And on one hand, I would say, yes, of course it is, because you need to move faster. And then on the other hand, I would say, be careful to not mix up daily operations with strategic outlook and strategic planning. So, we like to think about planning and business meetings where you can divide them into sort of running the business and changing the business. And sometimes you tend to mix up those two agendas. And then sort of running the business takes over and sort of the very short term becomes really important. So, actually, when we do these operating model designs, we tend to sort of split meetings and these governance meetings where you get together in the leadership team and think about these issues into running the business and changing the business or developing the business. So, there's, of course, some good questions there. And there's also a question around the organization that I mentioned, Clever, that has grown really fast. It's still a relatively small organization. But nevertheless, we see the same practices being implemented in big global organizations. And we could also have mentioned examples of this. I think the point is, of course, when you're 70,000 employees, you need to design your strategy operating model differently than if you're 500 or 1,000. So, everything is customized. And there's a great question on which industries will be impacted the most. And quite paradoxically, you could say, if you look at sort of a global trade war scenario, one of the industries that are likely to be harmed the most is actually the automotive industry that Trump is attempting to help. And he cares a lot about automotive workers in the U.S. But that is an industry with a very integrated North American and global value chain. So, tariffs with Canada and Mexico alone would hamper that supply chain severely. So, that's one of the industries that is looking to be harmed the most in such a scenario. Other similar industries like mechanical machinery, those big, complex, technical industries with lots of metal and steel and aluminum and technical equipment from very complex value chains are also sort of way to the left on the negative side. side of the impact. So, those would be some of the impact. So, those would be some of the industries. Very happy to go into details of that a bit more. What else do we have, Morten? Local manufacturing for global companies, for instance, in the U.S. Yes. So, if you're sourcing purely from U.S. suppliers, being behind the tariff borders can be a strategy. But very few value chain. But very few value chains are of that sort. And I'm especially concerned about his intentions. Be they temporary or permanent, that's still a question with regards to the North American market. But if his expressions of wanting to go tough on Canada and Mexico with 25% additional tariffs, that would be very harmful. And I don't see many value chains, even in the U.S., that would not be in harm's way of such a policy. So, there are very few supply chains that are purely sort of national, even in a big country like the U.S. And you could add to that, Martin, that if you then think about this as a potential assumption in coming back to sort of our assumption radar or matrix, one test, of course, is that you'd have to paint that picture of your end-to-end value chain and supply chain and figure out, where do we have cross-border activities? What might that entail? What might be the different scenarios that are playing out because your value chain is so complex? And that could help you figure out if there's something to act upon in terms of should we establish local manufacturing, yes or no? And for sure, this is a question to monitor closely over the coming weeks because all he has said is he will look in to investigate the possibility of those 25%. It's not decided. I would expect that such a serious tariff across the board for all products against the two main trading partners would go through a quite complex legislative process in the U.S. And he may be able to, and that's where you need to listen carefully to the wording around it. So, is it on a national security basis? Then he has the mandate as president for certain ways of deploying, doing this, and the way that it can only be doing this. It can only be temporary. So, the details of how this is expressed is going to give you a good indication on the outlook for this. So, I would say this is clearly a topic to be followed very closely. And then on the strategy again, there's a question from Heather around running and changing the business and thoughts on resource allocation. And I would say, by and large, the biggest overlooked piece put into practice in strategy execution is the ability to swiftly allocate and reallocate resources. And that is not only money. It's also talent. It's also people. It's also assets. And over and over again, we see brilliant strategies and brilliant lists of strategic initiatives. And then somehow, somebody is overlooking that at the end of the day, strategy is all about resource allocation. Reallocating your scarce resources to the most important things that you need to change. And that is key in both, coming back to the question, in a more centralized strategy operating model, as well as a more decentralized. In all circumstances, resource allocation is key to execute. And why is that? Obviously, of course, it's all about speed. If you want to have high speed. You want to do fewer things in a better way and move faster. So, the name of the game in the age of strategy and agility is, of course, resource allocation. We are actually approaching the end because it's nine o'clock. And we assume that many of you are going to enjoy a cup of coffee or maybe you're going into another great meeting. Hopefully, you found this inspiring. We are here to help and to answer more questions. And, of course, we will distribute the slides. If you have any inputs or feedback to us, you know, or want to give a high five, leave it in the chat. We are always super keen on that. That would be nice to have a bit of feedback from you guys. So, thank you from me. And from me as well. Have a great day. Have a great day.